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resilients:scenario_symphony [2013-02-12 03:55] – maja | resilients:scenario_symphony [2013-03-11 13:49] (current) – nik | ||
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- | == Composing a Scenario Symphony == | + | ==== Composing a Scenario Symphony |
Notes from FoAM's Scenario Building experiments, | Notes from FoAM's Scenario Building experiments, | ||
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//Note to the reader: this article assumes a basic knowledge of scenario building and strategic foresight. If you are new to this field, we suggest that you first read [[http:// | //Note to the reader: this article assumes a basic knowledge of scenario building and strategic foresight. If you are new to this field, we suggest that you first read [[http:// | ||
- | ==== Testing resilience of possible futures | + | === Testing resilience of possible futures === |
FoAM Nordica is developing a set of tools and experiments to link future scenario building with the concept of resilience. By resilience in this context we mean the capacity of a system (e.g. social, urban, ecological) to tolerate shocks and disturbances without falling apart or collapsing into a qualitatively different state. The ability to incorporate future instabilities is an important aspect of resilient systems and is the cornerstone of scenario building. | FoAM Nordica is developing a set of tools and experiments to link future scenario building with the concept of resilience. By resilience in this context we mean the capacity of a system (e.g. social, urban, ecological) to tolerate shocks and disturbances without falling apart or collapsing into a qualitatively different state. The ability to incorporate future instabilities is an important aspect of resilient systems and is the cornerstone of scenario building. | ||
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To test the scenario building kit, we decided to try it out in practice. FoAM Brussels is located in [[http:// | To test the scenario building kit, we decided to try it out in practice. FoAM Brussels is located in [[http:// | ||
- | >> FIGURE 1 – Example of a ' | ||
- | ==== Try this at home: the DIY / DIWO scenario building kit ==== | + | < |
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+ | FIGURE 1 – Example of a ' | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Try this at home: the DIY / DIWO scenario building kit === | ||
* **STEP 1: Identify your challenge.** Identify the focal problem or “burning issue” you wish to examine -- something everyone cares about and has some involvement in. Try formulating your challenge as a question. For example: //Are we too many to feed? What should we focus our limited energy on? How could food improve contact and engagement in a multicultural neighbourhood?// | * **STEP 1: Identify your challenge.** Identify the focal problem or “burning issue” you wish to examine -- something everyone cares about and has some involvement in. Try formulating your challenge as a question. For example: //Are we too many to feed? What should we focus our limited energy on? How could food improve contact and engagement in a multicultural neighbourhood?// | ||
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* **STEP 2: Set the boundaries: | * **STEP 2: Set the boundaries: | ||
- | >> FIGURE 2 – Foodprints Ruler | + | <html><a href=" |
+ | |||
+ | FIGURE 2 – Foodprints Ruler (image credit) | ||
* **STEP 3: Map the territory.** Create a list of physical, social, economic and historical characteristics of the place you're interested in, for example your family home, company HQ, neighbourhood, | * **STEP 3: Map the territory.** Create a list of physical, social, economic and historical characteristics of the place you're interested in, for example your family home, company HQ, neighbourhood, | ||
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* **STEP 7: Construct the scenario matrix.** On a large sheet of paper draw a vertical line crossing over a horizontal line -- an enlarged “+” sign, labelling the end of each line with one of the polar opposites of your two CUs. In this matrix, each of the four quadrants represents a skeleton of one scenario (see figure 3). //For example: [scenario 1] food abundance in a community-oriented lifestyle; [scenario 2] food scarcity in community oriented lifestyle; [scenario 3] food abundance in individualistic lifestyle; [scenario 4] food scarcity in an individualistic life-style.// | * **STEP 7: Construct the scenario matrix.** On a large sheet of paper draw a vertical line crossing over a horizontal line -- an enlarged “+” sign, labelling the end of each line with one of the polar opposites of your two CUs. In this matrix, each of the four quadrants represents a skeleton of one scenario (see figure 3). //For example: [scenario 1] food abundance in a community-oriented lifestyle; [scenario 2] food scarcity in community oriented lifestyle; [scenario 3] food abundance in individualistic lifestyle; [scenario 4] food scarcity in an individualistic life-style.// | ||
- | >> | + | |
+ | <html><a href=" | ||
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+ | FIGURE 3: Scenario matrix | ||
* **STEP 8: Create scenario narratives.** Draft a storyline/ | * **STEP 8: Create scenario narratives.** Draft a storyline/ | ||
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* **STEP 10: Locate your scenarios in the [[from_pan_to_panarchy|panarchy cycle]].** Map the “past, present, near future and distant future” of each of your scenarios to the four phases of the panarchy cycle. To do this ask yourself which phase your scenario is positioned in. For example, the “birth” phase could be the past, the “growth and maturation” phase the present, “death” the near future, and “renewal” the distant future (see figure 5); or perhaps your scenario is situated in the creative chaos of the renewal stage -- on the verge of a complete transformation. | * **STEP 10: Locate your scenarios in the [[from_pan_to_panarchy|panarchy cycle]].** Map the “past, present, near future and distant future” of each of your scenarios to the four phases of the panarchy cycle. To do this ask yourself which phase your scenario is positioned in. For example, the “birth” phase could be the past, the “growth and maturation” phase the present, “death” the near future, and “renewal” the distant future (see figure 5); or perhaps your scenario is situated in the creative chaos of the renewal stage -- on the verge of a complete transformation. | ||
- | >> | + | |
+ | <html><a href=" | ||
+ | |||
+ | FIGURE 5 – Examples | ||
* **STEP 11: Create an active and a passive future.** Design a passive future for your scenario where “business as usual” continues through all activities, regardless of what happens within and without the system in the long term. Next, design an active future where the scenario evolves towards an adaptive state of balance between its internal and external conditions -- thereby becoming more resilient. | * **STEP 11: Create an active and a passive future.** Design a passive future for your scenario where “business as usual” continues through all activities, regardless of what happens within and without the system in the long term. Next, design an active future where the scenario evolves towards an adaptive state of balance between its internal and external conditions -- thereby becoming more resilient. | ||
- | >> | + | <html><a href=" |
+ | |||
+ | FIGURE 6 – Active and passive future | ||
* **STEP 12: Visualise scenarios.** To illustrate your narratives, begin creating visuals for each. You could create one moodboard per scenario. Sometimes this is sufficient. In other situations you might want to create concept art illustrations or photomontages. | * **STEP 12: Visualise scenarios.** To illustrate your narratives, begin creating visuals for each. You could create one moodboard per scenario. Sometimes this is sufficient. In other situations you might want to create concept art illustrations or photomontages. | ||
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>> | >> | ||
- | ==== An open-ended symphony | + | === An open-ended symphony === |
The symphony of tools for future scenario building outlined above provides a set of self-contained elements that can be used in different configurations, | The symphony of tools for future scenario building outlined above provides a set of self-contained elements that can be used in different configurations, | ||
- | >> FIGURE 7 – Viewing a scenario from different perspectives | + | <html><a href=" |
+ | |||
+ | FIGURE 7 – Viewing a scenario from different perspectives | ||
It is our belief that the most important reason for thinking about the future is to learn about and adapt our behaviours in the present. Panarchy and the temporal model can help us reflect on the effect of our mindsets on system-wide changes. Our past past was at one time our future and this past has now determined our present. The panarchy model reflects the unpredictability of the rate of change in systems, but outlines perspectives for understanding this change. In planning for the future with an awareness of our agency and ability to shape change, future scenario building provides us with much more than an arsenal for anticipating | It is our belief that the most important reason for thinking about the future is to learn about and adapt our behaviours in the present. Panarchy and the temporal model can help us reflect on the effect of our mindsets on system-wide changes. Our past past was at one time our future and this past has now determined our present. The panarchy model reflects the unpredictability of the rate of change in systems, but outlines perspectives for understanding this change. In planning for the future with an awareness of our agency and ability to shape change, future scenario building provides us with much more than an arsenal for anticipating | ||
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If you do embark on the journey, please share your results and feel free to add your composition to our scenario building toolkit. | If you do embark on the journey, please share your results and feel free to add your composition to our scenario building toolkit. | ||
- | ==== References | + | === References === |
* Lance Gunderson and C. S. Holling. 2002. //Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Systems of Humans and Nature.// Washington: Island Press | * Lance Gunderson and C. S. Holling. 2002. //Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Systems of Humans and Nature.// Washington: Island Press |