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resilients:scenario_symphony [2013-02-12 03:55] – majaresilients:scenario_symphony [2013-02-13 22:42] – alkan
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-== Composing a Scenario Symphony ==+==== Composing a Scenario Symphony ====
  
 Notes from FoAM's Scenario Building experiments, by Anna Maria Orru and David Relan Notes from FoAM's Scenario Building experiments, by Anna Maria Orru and David Relan
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 //Note to the reader: this article assumes a basic knowledge of scenario building and strategic foresight. If you are new to this field, we suggest that you first read [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios by Lawrence Wilkinson]] as an introduction.// //Note to the reader: this article assumes a basic knowledge of scenario building and strategic foresight. If you are new to this field, we suggest that you first read [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios by Lawrence Wilkinson]] as an introduction.//
  
-==== Testing resilience of possible futures ====+=== Testing resilience of possible futures ===
  
 FoAM Nordica is developing a set of tools and experiments to link future scenario building with the concept of resilience. By resilience in this context we mean the capacity of a system (e.g. social, urban, ecological) to tolerate shocks and disturbances without falling apart or collapsing into a qualitatively different state. The ability to incorporate future instabilities is an important aspect of resilient systems and is the cornerstone of scenario building. FoAM Nordica is developing a set of tools and experiments to link future scenario building with the concept of resilience. By resilience in this context we mean the capacity of a system (e.g. social, urban, ecological) to tolerate shocks and disturbances without falling apart or collapsing into a qualitatively different state. The ability to incorporate future instabilities is an important aspect of resilient systems and is the cornerstone of scenario building.
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 >> FIGURE 1 – Example of a 'Drivers of Change' card >> FIGURE 1 – Example of a 'Drivers of Change' card
  
-==== Try this at home: the DIY / DIWO scenario building kit ====+=== Try this at home: the DIY / DIWO scenario building kit ===
  
   * **STEP 1: Identify your challenge.** Identify the focal problem or “burning issue” you wish to examine -- something everyone cares about and has some involvement in. Try formulating your challenge as a question. For example: //Are we too many to feed? What should we focus our limited energy on? How could food improve contact and engagement in a multicultural neighbourhood?// Be as specific as you can, finding the question that is at the core of your issue.     * **STEP 1: Identify your challenge.** Identify the focal problem or “burning issue” you wish to examine -- something everyone cares about and has some involvement in. Try formulating your challenge as a question. For example: //Are we too many to feed? What should we focus our limited energy on? How could food improve contact and engagement in a multicultural neighbourhood?// Be as specific as you can, finding the question that is at the core of your issue.  
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 >>  >> 
  
-==== An open-ended symphony ====+=== An open-ended symphony ===
  
 The symphony of tools for future scenario building outlined above provides a set of self-contained elements that can be used in different configurations, depending on the needs of participants and the challenges involved. Each of the steps has a different purpose. The matrix delineates types of scenarios, while vantage points and time perspectives allow for different orientations. The approach we took at FoAM was unique in that we used the Foodprints ruler to focus on scenarios related to food, as well as to provide clear parameters and central themes for the discussions to follow. Metaphorically, steps 1--8 map the territory and explore the terrain, while 9--13 look at how the terrain changes over time. The symphony of tools for future scenario building outlined above provides a set of self-contained elements that can be used in different configurations, depending on the needs of participants and the challenges involved. Each of the steps has a different purpose. The matrix delineates types of scenarios, while vantage points and time perspectives allow for different orientations. The approach we took at FoAM was unique in that we used the Foodprints ruler to focus on scenarios related to food, as well as to provide clear parameters and central themes for the discussions to follow. Metaphorically, steps 1--8 map the territory and explore the terrain, while 9--13 look at how the terrain changes over time.
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 If you do embark on the journey, please share your results and feel free to add your composition to our scenario building toolkit. If you do embark on the journey, please share your results and feel free to add your composition to our scenario building toolkit.
  
-==== References ====+=== References ===
  
   * Lance Gunderson and C. S. Holling. 2002. //Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Systems of Humans and Nature.// Washington: Island Press   * Lance Gunderson and C. S. Holling. 2002. //Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Systems of Humans and Nature.// Washington: Island Press
  • resilients/scenario_symphony.txt
  • Last modified: 2013-03-11 13:49
  • by nik