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expansions on the previous [[sampler]] and [[recommended reading]] pages... | expansions on the previous [[sampler]] and [[recommended reading]] pages... | ||
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+ | Resilience is... | ||
+ | the ability to absorb disturbances, | ||
+ | key concepts of resilience | ||
+ | http:// | ||
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+ | |||
+ | Resilience theory, first introduced by Canadian ecologist C.S. “Buzz” Holling in 1973, begins with two radical premises. The first is that humans and nature are strongly coupled and co-evolving, | ||
+ | |||
+ | A key feature of complex adaptive systems is that they can settle into a number of different equilibria. A lake, for example, will stabilize in either an oxygen-rich, | ||
+ | Resilience science focuses on these sorts of tipping points. It looks at gradual stresses, such as climate change, as well as chance events—things like storms, fires, even stock market crashes—that can tip a system into another equilibrium state from which it is difficult, if not impossible, to recover. How much shock can a system absorb before it transforms into something fundamentally different? That, in a nutshell, is the essence of resilience. | ||
+ | The concept of resilience upends old ideas about “sustainability”: | ||
+ | Over the past decade, resilience science has expanded beyond the founding group of ecologists to include economists, political scientists, mathematicians, | ||
+ | New Orleans, however, presents an interesting example to resilience scientists. If a lake can shift from clear to murky, could a city shift to a dramatically different stable state too? If biodiversity in ecosystems makes them resilient to disturbance, | ||
+ | … | ||
+ | In short, cities are the quintessential complex adaptive system. Which makes them, in many ways, the perfect place to explore resilience. | ||
+ | “As humans, we should try to understand how to manage systems in order to avoid passing thresholds, | ||
+ | |||
+ | A city’s lifeblood is a continuous flow of stuff—fuel, | ||
+ | The resilience approach, according to ecologist Guy Barnett of the Urban Network’s Canberra research team, focuses less on the resources that cities consume and more on the interdependencies along the chain of supply and demand. Dependence on a single type of fuel as an energy source, for instance, creates a highly vulnerable system—especially if fuel prices are volatile or if the supply is prone to disruption. | ||
+ | Consider what happened just outside of Melbourne in 1998. Several explosions at Esso Australia’s natural gas plant there killed two people and halted power supply to the city for nearly two weeks. As a result, the regional dairy industry, which relies on natural gas to power its milk pasteurization, | ||
+ | Take water, an essential resource for every city—and therefore a chronic source of concern for city managers without an ample supply. An efficient way of getting more would be to tap into groundwater; | ||
+ | |||
+ | On the coral reefs around Jamaica, a variety of fish once helped keep algae firmly in check. When intensive harvesting eliminated many of these algae-grazers, | ||
+ | Abundant biodiversity is critical, as most people know, because it means being able to fill the numerous niches of a healthy ecosystem. But it also increases the odds that some of those species, like fish and urchins, will share niches and have overlapping roles in the ecosystem. This redundancy can help a system absorb disturbance—or when it’s lost, make it vulnerable to attack. In the case of the Jamaican reefs, an infection or storm that might once have been easily surmountable suddenly become lethal. | ||
+ | When it comes to human populations, | ||
+ | … | ||
+ | When a mysterious ailment known as Colony Collapse Disorder decimated honeybee populations across the US in 2007, threatening a $14 billion fruit and nut industry, it became painfully apparent just how valuable the pollination services of this single winged species are. Similarly, the large-scale destruction of tropical rain forests has called attention to their invaluable role as living carbon sinks. | ||
+ | Urban resilience calls attention to the ecosystem services within cities themselves, to the medley of blue and green spaces, both natural and man-made, that can buffer a city against change. Things like urban parks, green roofs, community gardens, and coastal wetlands perform numerous functions, from cooling the city’s microclimate to purifying its rainwater to serving as built-in flood control. | ||
+ | In New Orleans, for example, more than 60 percent of wetlands have been lost in the last 60 years, due partly to oil and natural gas exploration and partly to the levies that were built to keep the Mississippi from flooding the city. Ironically, the loss of these wetlands contributed very directly to the disastrous effects of Hurricane Katrina. Researchers have since calculated that restoring 1 kilometer of wetland would reduce the wave height by one meter, and now efforts are underway to begin rebuilding the southern Louisiana coastline. | ||
+ | … | ||
+ | No city today could survive on its own resources. This goes for energy, water, food, information, | ||
+ | As urban areas grow in size and complexity, they are catalyzing a shift in power: Increasingly, | ||
+ | … | ||
+ | “We are going into a very interesting new era when it comes to global governance, | ||
+ | ... | ||
+ | At the outset of 2010, volatility is the watchword of the day. Some things are certain: economies will grow, greenhouse gases will accumulate, more people will be born than will die across the planet. But how exactly consumption, | ||
+ | Urban Resilience | ||
+ | Frontier / by Maywa Montenegro / February 16, 2010, Seed Magazine | ||
+ | http:// | ||
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+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | "The greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall." | ||
+ | Confucius | ||
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+ | The problem is we are not ever going to return to our original shape or position. There are philosophical reasons for this: you can’t step in the same river twice. There are practical reasons for this: technology and politics are constant change, and technology produces all kinds of acceleration. But, simply, the future, whatever it is, good or bad, is not going to look like the past. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Resilience is a comforting concept. It says “you can take a licking and keep on ticking.” It says “you will recover and restore your original shape after a crisis.” It’s fundamentally nostalgic. You wish for the way things were, and you put things back that way after the storm has passed. | ||
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+ | My friends, the storm is not going to pass. The storm is called life. We want systems which do not suffer from cascading failures. We want systems which keep working through trouble. We want systems which are easy to fix when they break. | ||
+ | |||
+ | But we want systems that aggressively and relentlessly adapt to their environments – good and bad – and any opportunity to prosper therein, not just systems that can recover from being whacked. | ||
+ | Resilience is passive. We need to move beyond it before the concept gets too dug in. | ||
+ | http:// | ||
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+ | |||
+ | Herman Koëter the former chairman of the EU agency for food-safety EFSA and the OESO says in a Dutch Newspaper today that Europe is still dumping low quality food and still exports insecticides like DDT to Africa. For instance: fish with too much dioxin or mercury is regularly exported. | ||
+ | The Brussels based non-profit Orange House Partnership attempts to train regulators in Afrika, China and other non-western countries, in knowledge about foodsafety issues and about chemicals in food-chains. This should allow them to be less vulnerable to the sales-pitches delivered by Western companies and to improve the quality of their own produce. | ||
+ | article in dutch: http:// | ||
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+ | |||
+ | "The problem is, the children of 2050 will look at that future world, with all its problems, and see home: and they' | ||
+ | |||
+ | Human beings make the future every day. Making the future -- setting in motion future events -- might almost be considered part of the definition of humanity. The problem is that today, when powerful men sit down and make decisions, they generally make those decisions as if the future didn't exist, as if the consequences of their actions were beyond anticipation, | ||
+ | |||
+ | We need millions of people ready to put the future back in the room. We need millions of people ready to demand that their governments, | ||
+ | Alex Steffen, | ||
+ | http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | Purple Pokeberries and Fiber Could Provide Low-Cost Solar for Developing Nations | ||
+ | Civil War soldiers used the dye from purple pokeberries to write letters home. Now, the bright-colored weeds are being used for a far more modern purpose. Researchers at Wake Forest University’s Center for Nanotechnology and Molecular Materials created low-cost, fiber-based solar cells that work more efficiently when coated with a layer of pokeberry dye. Scientists hope the cheap solar cells combined with a common plant will help provide inexpensive electricity to developing nations." | ||
+ | http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | "A dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC, DSC or DYSC[1]) is a relatively new class of low-cost solar cell, that belong to the group of thin film solar cells.[2] It is based on a semiconductor formed between a photo-sensitized anode and an electrolyte, | ||
+ | http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | Change in Numbers [anfischer.com] is an informative extension of an existing public display that features the actual ambient temperature in the city. The additional display calculates and shows the difference in temperature to historical statistical weather data of the past. In this case, the display calculated the difference of the month February to the same month about 50 years ago. By doing this, it aims to raise the public awareness of anthropomorphic global warming. | ||
+ | http:// | ||
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+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | Mowing with goats 5/01/2009 09:32:00 AM | ||
+ | At our Mountain View headquarters, | ||
+ | http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | From the Fields is a periodic Wired Science op-ed series presenting leading scientists’ reflections on their work, society and culture. Erle Ellis has written a response to Wired Science commenters, “Save the planet? From who? | ||
+ | |||
+ | Nature is gone. It was gone before you were born, before your parents were born, before the pilgrims arrived, before the pyramids were built. You are living on a used planet. | ||
+ | If this bothers you, get over it. We now live in the Anthropocene ― a geological epoch in which Earth’s atmosphere, lithosphere and biosphere are shaped primarily by human forces. | ||
+ | http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | "The term Anthropocene is used by some scientists to describe the most recent period in the Earth' | ||
+ | http:// | ||
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+ | Total Surface Area Required to Fuel the World With Solar | ||
+ | |||
+ | According to the US Department of Energy (Energy Information Administration), | ||
+ | I wonder what surface area would be required and what type of infrastructural investment would be required to supply that amount of power by using only solar panels. | ||
+ | ... | ||
+ | According to the United Nations 170,000 square kilometers of forest is destroyed each year. If we constructed solar farms at the same rate, we would be finished in 3 years. | ||
+ | There are 1.2 million square kilometers of farmland in China. This is 2 1/2 times the area of solar farm required to power the world in 2030. | ||
+ | The Saharan | ||
+ | The typical golf course covers about a square kilometer. We have 40,000 of them around the world being meticulously maintained. If the same could be said for solar farms we would be almost 10% of the way there. | ||
+ | http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | Globalizing Green | ||
+ | Stewart Brand built his case for rethinking environmental goals and methods on two major changes going on in the world. The one that most people | ||
+ | http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | He noted that history has always been driven by the world' | ||
+ | The second dominant global fact is climate change. Brand emphasized | ||
+ | ... | ||
+ | Green aversion to technologies such as nuclear and genetic engineering | ||
+ | |||
+ | PS. Long Now likes to include a pointer to related reading. As it | ||
+ | happens, the whole " | ||
+ | Earth Discipline is online, with 50 recommendations for books, | ||
+ | magazines, and websites, with live links. It's at: http:// | ||
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+ | |||
+ | Three reasons for hope: energy, fuel and food | ||
+ | I was recently asked if I had hope for the world. I do. There are lots of reasons why, but the three biggest areas are breakthroughs in energy, fuel and food production. These are not all technologies, | ||
+ | Energy | ||
+ | Nanosolar (http:// | ||
+ | The pitch: thin film solar panels with a production cost of $0.30 per watt (vs. $2.30 per watt for normal panels). Now here’s the interesting part. Their machinery costs 160 million dollars for a machine which can make a gigawatt of panels per year. Capital cost for a 1 watt of panels printed each year is $0.16 in other words. | ||
+ | Sale price for a panel is said to be around $1 for their tech. That leaves an _enormous_ amount of money available to scale with – they’ve got fifty cents on each watt of panels sold to be used for either scaling capacity (tripling it) or as profit. The possibility of very, very fast growth clearly exists here, limited by indium mining capacity probably, but it’s 1/3 as common as silver and has few other industrial uses so it’s likely a soluble problem. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Fuel | ||
+ | On the transportation fuels front there’s two hot tips. | ||
+ | Walter Adey and the Algal Turf Scrubber (http:// | ||
+ | Dr. Adey was the coral guy at the Smithsonian. He started growing algae to clean water, so his algae growing technology is always cast as being about clean water, which confuses the picture. Here’s the clear version: he’s fixed biodiesel. How? You know the thick, hairy stuff that grows on stones in rivers? That’s an algal turf. They grow in seawater too. And most of the complexity of harvesting algae is separating single cell critters from the water that surrounds them, where as turfs you harvest with a snowplough type blade. | ||
+ | It gets better. Turfs are multi-species, | ||
+ | Biobutanol (http:// | ||
+ | This is a bit more complicated. Nutshell version: ethanol is horrible for engines, pipelines and so on. Butanol is vastly better behaved. | ||
+ | Note the possibility of running 100% butanol in an unmodified or slightly tweaked gasoline engine. Now that is still being worked on, but the energy density and lack of corrosion problems seen with ethanol are *very* promising. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Food | ||
+ | Ivette Perfecto (great name) and her big organic food metanalysis. (http:// | ||
+ | Ivette Perfecto of the University of Michigan in the US and her colleagues found that, in developed countries, organic systems on average produce 92% of the yield produced by conventional agriculture. In developing countries, however, organic systems produce 80% more than conventional farms. | ||
+ | ( http:// | ||
+ | Basically, global food yields could go up 80% if we went organic. Seems moderately solid. | ||
+ | One Acre Fund (http:// | ||
+ | 12,000 farms in Africa. One year training program, kind of like health visitors but for farming. For a year they come to your farm, visit, and teach you things. Cost per farm $100 or so, taken as a loan by the farmers. Average results… wait for it… | ||
+ | Small Farm Multiplier | ||
+ | “In all cases, relatively smaller farm sizes are much more productive per unit area — 200 to 1,000 percent more productive — than are larger ones. In the United States the smallest farms, those of 27 acres or less, have more than ten times greater dollar output per acre than larger farms.” http:// | ||
+ | Basically big farms are more profitable (lower labor costs) but small farms are more productive, per acre. Food prices rise, small farms become more economic, people produce a hell of a lot more food per acre. | ||
+ | Excerpts from: http:// | ||
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+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | In the Lancet, Dr Terry Hartig, from the Institute for Housing and Urban | ||
+ | Research at Uppsala University: | ||
+ | |||
+ | "This study offers valuable evidence that green space does more than ' | ||
+ | |||
+ | When the records of more than 366,000 people who died between 2001 and 2005 were analysed, it revealed that even tiny green spaces in the areas in which they lived made a big difference to their risk of fatal diseases. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Even small parks in the heart of our cities can protect us from strokes and heart disease, perhaps by cutting stress or boosting exercise. | ||
+ | http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | Podcast on planetary boundaries: http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | The benefits of future predictions may be more in thinking in the larger scope/scale than in the accuracy of any one prediction. This is like the idea that planning is worthwhile even if a specific plan need to be taken with a significant quantity of salt. -Bruce Sterling | ||
+ | |||
+ | Permaculture design principles: | ||
+ | *[1] Observe and interact; beauty is in the eye of the beholder | ||
+ | *[2] Catch and store energy; make hay while the sun shines | ||
+ | *[3] Obtain a yield; you can't work on an empty stomach | ||
+ | *[4] Apply self regulation and accept feedback; The sins of the fathers are visited on the children unto the seventh generation | ||
+ | *[5] Use and value renewable resources and services; let nature take its course | ||
+ | *[6] Produce no waste; a stitch in time saves nine / Waste not, want not | ||
+ | *[7] Design from patterns to details; can't see the wood for the trees | ||
+ | *[8] Integrate rather than segregate; many hands make light work | ||
+ | *[9] Use small and slow solutions; the bigger they are, the harder they fall | ||
+ | *[10] Use and value diversity; don't put all your eggs in one basket | ||
+ | *[11] Use edges and value the marginal; don't think you're on the right track just because it is a well beaten path | ||
+ | *[12] Creatively use and respond to change; vision is not seeing things as they are, but as they will be. -David Holmgren | ||
+ | |||
+ | Things should be as simple as possible, but no simpler. -Albert Einstein | ||
+ | |||
+ | We have come to the point at which there is no other way than to bring about a movement to bring nothing about” - Masanobu Fukuoka | ||
+ | |||
+ | A working eco-travel monitoring system will resemble a sort of stock market. It can be a way of increasing the perceived value of pristine nature, whose only value at present appears to be seen just in terms of its natural resources. Realising the enjoyable assets of nature can drive conservation forward. http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | The Barefoot college in Rajasthan, India is a unique place, run by unique people. It is rooted in tradition, with a vision that reaches far into the future. It is an embodiment of Gandhi’s philosophy – a place where education is distinct from literacy, where women flourish, children run a parliament, and people with handicaps are not disabled. On Barefoot campuses there is no waste, water is harvested and sunlight turned into power (literally and metaphorically). In Barefoot campus programmes traditional crafts meet information technologies, | ||
+ | |||
+ | What would the impact be if categories of human explorations were seen not as “economies” – or systems of exchange – but ecologies, in which we played a rightful part? What if, in place of technological categorizations of human activities, we reflected on our lives through a social lens? http:// | ||
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+ | The first and probably most precious resource that people can share is time. A quite successful effort in the exchange of “free time” has emerged in Italy, mediated by public institutions, | ||
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+ | Frugal life, mother, simple life, conservation, | ||
+ | The possibility of marrying craft with computerisation, | ||
+ | |||
+ | “We’d tried Pepsi and Virgin Cola and various others too,” says Brandon, “but they weren’t really a positive alternative. They were acceptable, but they weren’t Coke. And people really want Coke.” After conducting various taste tests, they felt the preference had less to do with flavour than the power of the brand. (…) “Given that most of the Cube’s customers come because they like the place’s DIY attitude, | ||
+ | |||
+ | Today I witnessed a municipality truck with five officials in South Delhi, picking up vendor carts at random. They took away the utensils and the stock. Other officials decided to use their sticks to beat up vendors and break their eggs. They finally drove away with apparent glee. I had been acquainted for several weeks with one of the vendors they attacked. (…) Meanwhile, my vendor is back the next morning. I am impressed and inquire how many times this has happened, and he says with defiance, “three times in the last two months.” (…) The cart is from his friend, a fresh juice vendor. The fresh juice business is not very popular in winters. There are no eggs today since all were broken in the clash. I am told that the eggs will arrive soon. Meanwhile he lights a fire with the waste paper lying around to warm up the place for everyone. http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | I once read that about 70 per cent of textile designs are floral prints. Most certainly, the history of textiles showcases the visual representation of nature as a primary creative inspiration. With recent developments in material science we can now move away from iconic representations of nature and start to design, fabricate, and recycle as efficiently as nature. The world of biomimicry has become a key inspiration for the future of design strategies and methodologies… http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | We propose that the current climate of industrialized destruction be countered by industrialized reseeding of the oceans. Our work particularly examines the technologies that should exist to carry out this wish. The primary idea we are researching is the construct Bio Ocean Balls(BOBs). Consisting of a mass of larvae from micro to macro sized organisms, BOBs are released into the marine environment where they melt and disperse. This influx of biodiversity into once sterile areas rapidly creates a complete ecosystem. http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | The accelerating crisis in climate change and the realization that humans are the primary cause of this change has raised questions about ownership and responsibility. Who ‘owns’ the climate change crisis and who is responsible for mitigating and reversing it if possible? The overwhelming response to these questions by governments internationally has been to propose a market solution—in essence, to sell the atmosphere. http:// | ||
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+ | The Glistening Dew by Michael Filimowicz | ||
+ | |||
+ | Sometime later | ||
+ | The bomb craters | ||
+ | Made good fish ponds | ||
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+ | |||
+ | ====Viridian Principles 2.0 (abridged)==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Futurist Principles=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Embrace Decay** - Entropic processes should be closely studied, harnessed for industrial use, and even aestheticized. | ||
+ | * **Planned Evanescence** - the product and all its physical traces should gracefully disintegrate and vanish entirely. | ||
+ | * **Eat what you Kill** - take pains to fully comprehend the thing you have rendered obsolete. | ||
+ | * **The Future is History** - Be when you are. | ||
+ | * **History Accumulates** - invent better ways to manage our increasing wealth of history | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Moral Principles=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Look at the Underside First** - point out malfunctions, | ||
+ | * **Design for Evil** - Every design process is incomplete unless it takes into careful consideration what could be done with the product by a dictatorial megalomaniac in command of a national economy, secret police and large army. | ||
+ | * **Design for Old** - The 21st century will have a historically unprecedented demographic structure. | ||
+ | * **Superstition isn’t Inspiration** - There’s no effective substitute for experimental verification and verifiable results. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Political Principles=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Viridian Inactivism** - Activism is an attention hog. Find the things you are doing that intensify problems, and cease doing them. Seek command of your own life. | ||
+ | * **Do Less with Less** - We should struggle valiantly to find alternative sources of energy, but it’s just as gratifying to simply become less frenetic. What exactly are we doing at the moment that is worth ruining the climate for? Relax. | ||
+ | * **There’s No One so Green as the Dead** - If you feel helpless with guilt because of your bad environmental habits, pause and think of the very brief time in which you employ the Earth’s resources, and the long, long eons in which you’ll just be raw material again. | ||
+ | * **The Viridian Grandfather Principle** - Viridians prefer to carry out green activities than living people can do well | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Principles of the Avant-technogarde=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **The Biological isn’t Logical** - The living world was not designed by a teleological, | ||
+ | * **Augment Reality: Aestheticize all Sensors** - Sensors, instrumentation, | ||
+ | * **Make the Invisible Visible** - Advances in instrumentation can be used to change the zeitgeist | ||
+ | * **Less Mass, More Data** - If you always know where something is, you don’t have to chain it up. Physical resources should be replaced with information where possible. | ||
+ | * **Tangible Cyberspace** - introduce computer generated artefacts and processes into the deepest and most intimate textures of the physical world. Make the screen permeable, and turn ‘computers’ into worldly, sensual entities. | ||
+ | * **Seek the Biomorphic and the Transgenic** - “Nature” is over. What does it mean when you look into the garden and the garden looks back? | ||
+ | * **Datamine Nature** - There is a wealth of aesthetic novelty to be found in previously invisible aspects of nature, such as cellular metabolism, noninvasive medical imaging, hybridomas and chimeras, artificial life entities and chemosynthetic life forms. | ||
+ | * **Grow Complexity** - look for patterns that are both tasteful and previously impossible. With computers it is absurdly simple to create any level of busyness and complexity. Without human aesthetic intervention, | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Research Principles=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | * **Walk Through the Walls of Knowledge Guilds** - The boundaries that separate art, science, medicine, literature, computation, | ||
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+ | |||
+ | Much of the current thinking about the sustainability of our lifestyles is predominantly future focused – in 2020, by 2050, in 5, 15 or 50 years – things will change for the better (according to neo-liberal optimism), or for the worse (according to some scientific projections, | ||
+ | |||
+ | A Luminous Green gathering is neither a radical environmentalist camp, nor a glitzy, self-congratulatory, | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | Related reading suggestions from workshops in 2007, 2008 and 2009: | ||
+ | http:// | ||
+ | http:// | ||
+ | http:// | ||
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