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futurist_fieldguide:horizon_scanning [2021-03-15 16:16] – maja | futurist_fieldguide:horizon_scanning [2021-04-14 10:49] – nik | ||
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- | ==== Horizon Scanning ==== | + | ===== Horizon Scanning |
- | How do we create | + | How can we get a sense of the big picture in which our core question or issue is embedded? How do we identify |
- | < | + | Horizon scanning refers to a specific aptitude that enables a broad, active, curious, and pre-judgmental sensing of change as part of a continuous (life-long) practice. Horizon scanning is also a set of specific scanning techniques that can help to focus your futuring research. In horizon scanning you observe |
- | < | + | //"Almost all foresight work starts with or involves Horizon Scanning. ' |
- | http:// | + | |
- | < | + | —[[http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/media-centre/ |
- | http://foresightculture.com/escanning-20 | + | |
- | === Process | + | ==== Signals ==== |
+ | //" | ||
- | < | + | Signals of change can be found all around you. In news, opinions, scientific discoveries, |
- | Thirteen rules for scanning | + | Signals can have different strengths, frequencies, |
+ | |||
+ | ==== Trends ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Trends are tendencies and patterns of change. They describe what is changing, how this change happens, where and for whom the change is happening. Trends provide context for individual signals. This context sometimes only becomes apparent when clustering, synthesising or analysing multiple signals. Trends evolve over time and can be emerging, ongoing or declining. They co-exist and influence each other. They can converge and diverge, amplify and dampen each other' | ||
+ | |||
+ | Here's an example of a [[https:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Driving forces ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Driving forces of change aka megatrends are longer-term shifts with wider-reaching consequences. They shape trends and are the underlying causes of signals. They are observed over decades (or longer) and can have impact across most if not all sectors. Ideologies, political and economic systems, ecosystems, demographics, | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Scanning process ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | //" | ||
+ | |||
+ | Phases of horizon scanning: | ||
+ | * Framing (understanding the need) | ||
+ | * Planning (sources and methods) | ||
+ | * Sourcing (monitor sources, perform searches, identify and collect information…) | ||
+ | * Sorting (collating, synthesising, | ||
+ | * Sense making (determine the relevance and implications) | ||
+ | * Adapting (review and adjust the system) | ||
+ | |||
+ | An alternative description of these phases: FAFA (from [[integral futures]]) | ||
+ | * Find: where and how to look for scanning hits | ||
+ | * Analyse: use cross-level analysis (as well as [[causal layered analysis]]) to expand the interpretation of the resulting scanning hits | ||
+ | * Frame: create a framework for organising insights from the scanning hits | ||
+ | * Apply: use the insights to inform the subsequent phases of the project | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Sourcing ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Most curious people have some way of scanning different sources, it may be structured or more informal. In horizon scanning, it's important to be sufficiently critical of the sources, yet also sufficiently open minded to observe signals that don't agree with our worldview, or counter our arguments. Diversity of sources is key for horizon scanning, in order to get as broad picture of the landscape as possible. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Official reports (foresight, industry, policy, etc.) are useful to scan the macro environment (megatrends, | ||
+ | * Academic and Professional Journals are a rich resource of signals, trends and drivers | ||
+ | * Professional news, conferences, | ||
+ | * News, current affairs, podcasts (local, national, global) are an ongoing source of signals on micro and macro scales | ||
+ | * Blogs, podcasts and newsletters can be mined for signals and trends by people who know much more about specific topics than you would. | ||
+ | * Social media where communities of interest emerge and a wider range of expert and non-expert signals can be found (scanning the scanners) | ||
+ | * Information databases with opportunities to setup specific alerts and trackers. | ||
+ | * Etc. | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | While the scanning mostly happens in secondary sources as listed above, it is just as important to go out into the field and experience change first hand. This is of particular interest for spotting weak signals and cultural shifts. | ||
+ | * Observe | ||
+ | * train to direct your attention like a beam of light, from wide to narrow, focused to dispersed... | ||
+ | * have your ambient awareness ' | ||
+ | * for longer term changes in behaviours and environments, | ||
+ | * Use multiple senses to notice and record the signals (photos, sound, video, objects, etc.) | ||
+ | * Talk to people! Get to know their different points of view, expert or enthusiasts alike. | ||
+ | * Ask questions. Don't attempt to fix things or offer solutions. Challenge your understanding and assumptions | ||
+ | * Listen. Listen. Listen. | ||
+ | * Directly experience contemporary cultural expressions to uncover emerging themes and intuitions | ||
+ | * Art and design (objects, media, environments, | ||
+ | * Books (fiction and non-fiction) and magazines | ||
+ | * Films, TV series, documentaries | ||
+ | * Social media like instagram, tiktok, youtube, etc. | ||
+ | * Develop your own sensing network with an appropriate mix of specialists and generalists from different sectors and geographic regions. | ||
+ | |||
+ | While scanning, watch out for your own biases and for filter distortions by media and search engines. Select information that will give you a sense of the landscape in broad strokes. Keep your distance and hold back your reactions. Set your limits. Do not scan 24/7 but opt for ' | ||
+ | |||
+ | " | ||
* The future is already here, you need to find it | * The future is already here, you need to find it | ||
* Look for clues, not comprehensive evidence | * Look for clues, not comprehensive evidence | ||
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* Get out from behind the computer - the future isn’t online: | * Get out from behind the computer - the future isn’t online: | ||
* The future is not yet written down, it is concentrated in people and places - find and engage with remarkable people | * The future is not yet written down, it is concentrated in people and places - find and engage with remarkable people | ||
- | * Learning journeys (seek out and learn from innovators and thinkers, have immersive experiences (' | + | * Learning journeys (seek out and learn from innovators and thinkers, have immersive experiences (' |
- | Existing scanning frameworks: | + | ==== Sorting ==== |
- | * [[STEEP]](VD): | + | |
- | * DEGEST: Demography, Environment, | + | |
- | * PEST(LE): Political, Economic, Societal, Technological, | + | |
- | * FAFA (an [[integral futures]] method: | + | |
- | * Find: where and how to look for scanning hits | + | |
- | * Analyse: use cross-level analysis (as well as [[causal layered analysis]]) to expand the interpretation of the resulting scanning hits | + | |
- | * Frame: create a framework for organising insights from the scanning hits | + | |
- | * Apply: use the insights to inform the subsequent phases of the project | + | |
+ | While you might spend time scanning sources to find out what is happening, sorting and structuring the gathered information is also important. It certainly helps to make sense of it all, to be able to answer the question "what does this tell me (about my topic of interest or possible future)?" | ||
- | Phases | + | Keeping track of all the signals, trends and drivers is a craft, and often a personal or collective preference. If you' |
- | * Framing | + | |
- | * Planning (sources | + | If you're scanning with a group of people, you'll benefit from using a shared system |
- | * Executing (monitor sources, perform searches…) | + | * where and how do you bookmark, reference or store materials? |
- | * Sense making (determine the relevance | + | * is there a shared document repository? |
- | * Adapting (review | + | * how do you take notes? |
+ | * how will you keep your evidence, signals | ||
+ | * is there a need for a more structured database? | ||
+ | * do you need a collective taxonomy specific to your area of interest? is it predefined or adhoc? | ||
+ | * how will you map clusters of signals, trends | ||
+ | * do you need additional lenses or frameworks, such as: | ||
+ | * [[STEEP]](VD): | ||
+ | * DEGEST: Demography, Environment, | ||
+ | * PEST(LE): Political, Economic, Societal, Technological, | ||
- | Keep a scanning journal: title, source, summary, category (STEEP), creating/ | ||
- | </ | + | ==== Synthesis ==== |
- | From [[http:// | + | Scanning and sorting usually involves dealing with “too much material”. The material could include sources that might not be directly relevant, things from unreliable sources, overly technical sources, or untested speculation alongside heavily verified sources. |
+ | Synthesising the material, bringing together the loose ends, the unexpected signals, finding clusters, seeing connections, | ||
- | ==== References ==== | + | ===== References |
+ | * https:// | ||
* [[http:// | * [[http:// | ||
* [[https:// | * [[https:// |